Our View of 2024

Increasingly Optimistic Consumer health will dominate headlines in 2024 as the eventual recession becomes a reality. The onset of a recession is a lagging indicator and represents a normalized shift in the business cycle, one that has occurred every 6.5 years since...

Are The Federal Reserve’s Actions Working?

  The Quick Take: The actions of the Federal Reserve in raising interest rates appear to be working. Retail sales slowed in October. Slower growth in spending does not mean that spending has halted. Inflation slowed once again last month, adding further credence...

Our View of 2023: August Update

Notes on Increasingly Optimistic > Labor Market & Consumer Sentiment Our assessment on consumer consumption, the labor market, and overall consumer sentiment proved largely accurate and may continue to play out through the rest of 2023. Insight on consumer...

Our Outlook for a Soft Landing

Overview The economic backdrop thus far in 2023 has proven more resilient than expected. This is especially true as the consensus largely predicted that the U.S. economy would enter a recession heading into 2023 amidst a tightening monetary policy backdrop designed to...