On June 12, 2026, SpaceX participated in a record-breaking IPO (Initial Public Offering). At the time, we explained why we chose not to purchase SpaceX at its IPO Launch.  

What happened in the first 90 days after the IPO?  

Here, we explore SpaceX’s performance, volatility, and earnings expectations and share why, even after three months, we remain convicted of our stance to forego a direct portfolio allocation in the stock.  

What is SpaceX?

SpaceX, or the Space Exploration Technologies Corp, is an innovative aerospace and technology company founded by Elon Musk 24 years ago. The company focuses on building rockets, deploying satellites, and enabling global internet capabilities, with the goal of sending humans to Mars.  

SpaceX operates with five key functions:  

1. Launch rockets and satellites 

2. Provide global high-speed internet via Starlink satellites (the most profitable division of the company right now) 

3. Collaborate with NASA and the Department of Defense 

4. Develop deep-space exploration 

5. Build AI and infrastructure (i.e. data centers in space) 

Structure of the SpaceX IPO 

At the Initial Public Offering, SpaceX targeted a capital raise of $75B by selling 4-5% of the company (referred to as the “float”). As a reference, a 15-25% float is considered a more typical starting point.  

Dividing the targeted capital raise by the % of the company sold tells us that SpaceX was valued at about $1.7 trillion at the time of its IPO. If this sounds like a large valuation, that’s because it is. The SpaceX IPO is in the top five of the most valuable IPOs.   

Here’s another way to put this exuberant valuation into context:

In 2025, SpaceX reported their profits as $18.7B. The company was private at the time, so we don’t have an exact picture of what they made, but this is a general reference point.  

Therefore, to achieve a $1.7 trillion valuation at the IPO capital raise, buyers needed to pay 91x revenue. In other words, investors purchasing stocks during the IPO paid $91 for every $1 of future SpaceX revenue. 

Based on those figures, SpaceX is worth 4.5x MORE than Nvidia but generates 14x LESS revenue.     

SpaceX 90-Day Post-IPO Performance Review 

How did things play out over the first 90 days post-IPO? 

From June 11, 2026, through September 11, 2026, SpaceX saw 12.01% in total returns, a healthy figure that exceeded most expectations. Comparatively, the S&P 500 returned just 3.84% over the same 90 days, creating an 8.17% relative performance gap between SpaceX and the S&P 500.  

What’s more, five days after the IPO, SpaceX stock increased nearly 50% in value. The S&P 500 peaked in performance too, up 5.71%, but not until 2 months later, proving it wasn’t macroeconomics or another force pushing the SPCX gain, as that force would have presumably had the same effect on the S&P 500 at the same time.

With these kinds of returns, why don’t we invest in SpaceX now?  

Beyond performance, we must consider drawdown data, which shows us the slide of a stock.  

For example, if you bought SpaceX at its IPO date and held it until September 11, 2026, you would have ultimately gained 12%, but you would have been down 20% at one point in that period.   

If you bought the stock right after its peak, you would have had a drawdown of nearly 50% to the stock’s August lows.  

Seeing this volatility on a broader scale is insightful as well. If SpaceX’s volatility from the last 90 days was extrapolated over a year, the annualized volatility would be 95.227%. This would put SpaceX’s level of volatility in the top 1-2% of all equities in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. In contrast, the S&P 500 90-day annualized volatility is only 12.871%.  

Regardless of returns, the reality is that most investors are not comfortable with these kinds of fluctuations. Those that can stomach a volatility profile like this counter it with future hope in the performance of the stock, which may or may happen to the levels they’re anticipating. In the meantime, the stock will create risk management issues in a portfolio and should be handled with caution.  

At Credent, we care about creating smooth and sustainable return profiles for clients. SpaceX doesn’t fit that mold, at least not yet.  

In truth, while mature in existence, SpaceX is a newcomer company in the market and needs to find its footing before we have more interest in participating.

Need a second opinion on your portfolio?  

Reach out to a member of our team to see how to structure your portfolio with proper risk management and returns.

What’s Next: Earnings Expectations

A 90-day review helps us look back, but stocks price themselves on a forward-looking basis. So, going forward, how do things look for SpaceX?   

On September 11, the valuation of SpaceX was about $2 trillion, and the estimated 2026 earnings per share (EPS), or how much a stockholder will gain on one share, is $0.06 through year-end. 

The estimated 2027 full-year EPS is $1.76/share. In other words, SpaceX’s earnings per share must increase by 2,833% from 2026 to 2027 for the EPS to reach a level that justifies SpaceX’s current valuation profile.  

Is this an exuberant or realistic expectation?  

Our Chief Investment Officer, Edison Byzyka, perceives this expectation as 90% exuberant and 10% realistic.  

There are still a lot of unanswered questions:  

• How is the company structuring its forward guidance? (It will likely take at least a couple more earnings cycles to answer this) 

• How is the macroeconomic background (i.e. higher interest rates) going to influence SpaceX? Will it impact their debt?  

• Will SpaceX sell more shares to the market and dilute some of their equity components?  

It’s difficult to predict the answers and to accept the baseline expectations we’re seeing around SpaceX, which seem more exuberant than realistic.  

What Do Analysts Recommend?

As of September 11, the breakdown of recommendations from the 43 analysts covering SpaceX are as follows: 

• 33 BUY ratings 

• 6 HOLD ratings 

• 4 SELL ratings 

The aggregate expectation is that, over the next 12 months, SpaceX could gain 40.03%. This is not Credent’s estimate but merely tracks and combines the analysts’ expectations.  

This may sound great on its own, but context matters. For example, if you bought the stock right after its peak and experienced the 50% drawdown, the stock would need a 100% gain for you to be “made whole” after the 50% slide. 

It’s also important to note that most of the 43 analysts participated in some way in the SpaceX IPO, creating a possibility for inherent bias in their recommendations. 

Alongside the 2,833% EPS increase expectation, the projected 40.03% gain seems somewhat exuberant. This gain could happen (or go further than anticipated), but whether analysts are correct or not, volatility will be involved in SpaceX holdings over the next 12 months.

SpaceX 90-Day Post-IPO Summary

Ultimately, where does SpaceX stand, and where is it going? Here’s our 90-day performance review summary.  

1. Exuberance remains intact. SpaceX is showing too much exuberance to make a fundamental call about what is going to happen, even after 90 days.  

2. Near-term gains will be highly biased to passive ETFs and mutual funds purchasing the stock as a required holding to mirror the Nasdaq 100.  

3. As SpaceX releases future quarterly earnings reports, we will be watching whether or not there is a repricing of earnings per share expectations (EPS) to determine when and if we will purchase the stock as a core holding over a 12-24-month period.  

4. This analysis is simply a fundamental assessment, not commentary on the company as a whole.  

To talk to a member of our team about where SpaceX stands, reach out using the form below.

To review our previous IPO assessment, see “Why We’re Not Purchasing SpaceX at its IPO Launch.”